Connecticut State & Metro Migration Flows

At CTData, we often receive questions about changes in migration patterns before and after 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic. Using three data sources from the U.S. Census Bureau, this blog post will look at recent migration patterns in Connecticut.

For state-level patterns, the Population Estimates Program and the 2021 American Community Survey 1-year estimates provide information on domestic and international migration. To look at smaller geographies, we used the recently released 2016-2020 American Community Survey migration flows data, which provides migration information for respondents who moved between 2015 and 2019 (more on that below). As we move farther from 2020, more data will be available to study pre- and post-pandemic migration patterns at localized geographies. 

The Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program will be releasing county-equivalent data for Connecticut this week, so check back soon for more information. 

Population Estimates and Population Change 

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program, Connecticut’s July 1, 2022 population was 3,626,205 – a very slight increase from its 2021 population of 3,623,355. The estimate for July 1, 2020 was 3,597,362.

Population changes through two components: natural change (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net migration (the number of people moving to a place minus the number of people moving out of that place). PEP uses data for these components to calculate population change for each year since the most recent Census. 

Connecticut has had decreasing levels of natural change since 2011, hitting its lowest during the COVID-19 pandemic. Natural change returned to positive between 2021-2022; there were 916 more births than deaths. Small and negative natural change during the last three years means that Connecticut’s population has been growing primarily from net migration – more people moved to Connecticut than moved out.  

After very low levels of immigration in 2020 and 2021 during the Covid-19 pandemic, international migration has rebounded to just over 16,000 – higher than 2019’s total of 12,323. Between 2011 and 2020, domestic net migration was negative, meaning that more people left Connecticut than moved in from other states. However, from July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, domestic net migration was 19,000. Between 2021 and 2022, the pattern reversed again: 13,547 more people left Connecticut than moved in. 

State to State Migration

The American Community Survey (ACS) provides detailed data on migration patterns, including where people moved to and from. The ACS is administered on a rolling basis throughout the year. Because it asks where respondents lived one year ago, respondents who answered the ACS in 2021 could have moved at any point between January and December 2020. The 2021 ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) data used in this blog post includes respondents who moved both before and after the COVID-19 pandemic began. 

During 2020, more people from New York moved to Connecticut than from any other state: 38,029 New Yorkers moved to Connecticut. Next was Massachusetts (13,113), Florida (7,858), California (7,590), and New Jersey (6,568). This pattern is in line with pre-pandemic migration: according to the 2019 ACS 1-year estimates, Connecticut became home to movers from New York (27,606), Massachusetts (13,020), Florida (7,501), New Jersey (5,297), and California (4,049) most frequently.

Movers from Connecticut most frequently went to Florida (16,906), Massachusetts (13,074), and New York (12,451). According to the 2019 ACS, movers from Connecticut also most frequently went to New York (15,040), Florida (13,227), and Massachusetts (11,690).  

Connecticut Metro Flows

The 2020 ACS 5-year estimates include migration flow data for metropolitan statistical areas. 2020 5-year estimates are developed using data over the years 2016 through 2020, so they include data on people who moved between 2015 and 2019. This post focuses on the four metropolitan statistical areas which fall completely within Connecticut. It doesn’t include the Worcester, MA-CT Metro Area, as most of its population is outside of Connecticut. Additionally, the northeast portion of Connecticut is within a micropolitan statistical area for which ACS migration data is unavailable. 

Among metro areas in Connecticut, Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown had the highest number of people move in (50,321), and move out (48,387). Three of the four metro areas saw positive net migration. 

The table below shows the ten metro areas that people most frequently moved from into each of the four Connecticut metro areas. Most movers came from other Connecticut metros (40,780), New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area (26,225 total CT metro area movers), or Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metro Area (5,429). About 7,500 movers moved from an area that is outside of one of the Census Bureau’s Metropolitan Statistical Areas. 

The following table shows the 10 metro areas that each metro left Connecticut to move to. Top out-of-state destinations for movers were New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area (12,796), Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metro Area (7,177), Worcester, MA-CT Metro Area (3,935), and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metro Area (3,211). 

County-to-county migration flows data is also available through the 2020 ACS 5-year estimates. To explore this data, check out the Census Bureau’s Census Flows Mapper.  

For More Information 

To learn more about the Census and resources provided by CTData, head to our Census Data portal. Explore other data sets and analysis at data by topic and data projects. Access our Geospatial Tools or Census Data Tools for your own census data project. You can stay up-to-date on the latest data and tools by subscribing to our newsletter and following CTData on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.