Census Bureau Releases First Population Estimates for Connecticut’s “County-Equivalent” Planning Regions
Note: Since the publication of this blog post, we have learned that there was an error in the Census Bureau’s vintage 2022 population estimates which were used for the analyses in this post. This error resulted in inaccurately high estimates of Connecticut’s population in 2021 and 2022, particularly in the Capitol Planning Region and in the South Central Connecticut Planning Region. See our blog post on this topic for more information.
Today, the Census Bureau released the first postcensal population estimates for Connecticut’s nine planning regions. These nine planning regions are the new county-equivalent geographic units that the Census Bureau will be using for Connecticut (see our earlier blog post on this topic). This is the first Census Bureau data product to be released using Connecticut’s new county-equivalent geographic units.
The new county-equivalent planning region geographic units are being phased in for data products released in 2023 referencing data collected in 2022, including the annual population estimates and the American Community Survey. These county-equivalent geographic units will replace most county-level data released by the Census Bureau moving forward, with the important exception of 2020 Census data products, which will still use the historical county boundaries that were used for the 2020 Census. Census Bureau data users should note that the county-equivalent planning regions will simply be referred to as “counties” in Census Bureau data products, although the geographic units will be labeled with the names of the planning regions instead of counties.
What are Connecticut’s Planning Regions?
Connecticut’s historical eight counties stopped serving as functioning governmental or administrative units in 1960. Currently, Connecticut has nine Regional Councils of Government (COG) that carry out regional planning and service delivery activities similar to those performed by county-level governments in other states. These COGs align with nine planning regions formed under Sec. 16a-4a of Connecticut’s General Statutes to allow for regional coordination among municipalities. See the map below for the planning region boundaries, the towns within each planning region, and historical county boundaries (delineated by thick white borders).
In 2019, officials in Connecticut’s Office of Planning and Management formally petitioned the Census Bureau to collect and report data for Connecticut’s nine planning regions instead of the historical counties. Obtaining county-equivalent data for Connecticut’s planning regions will increase the utility of the data for regional planning and decision-making, and it may make it easier for COGs to apply for and receive federal grants. In 2022, the Census Bureau published the final Federal Register Notice of the decision to implement this change internally in that same year, with published products beginning to reflect the change in 2023.
How Many People Lived in Each Planning Region in July 2022?
The table and map below show the July 2022 population estimates for the nine planning regions in Connecticut. The population within each planning region ranges widely from about 96,000 residents in the Northeastern CT Planning Region to almost 981,500 residents in the Capitol Planning Region.
How Did the Population in Each Planning Region Change Since July 2020?
During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, from July 2020 to 2021, Connecticut experienced an influx of residents resulting in a population gain of 0.7% (an increase of about 26,000 residents) following a decade of stagnant or negative population change. This population gain was spread broadly across Connecticut’s planning regions, with eight of the nine planning regions showing at least a 0.5% population gain. The Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region showed the highest relative population growth of 1.2% (a gain of roughly 2,200 residents) in this period.
In contrast, from July 2021 to 2022, Connecticut’s total population remained relatively stable with an estimated increase of just 0.1% (about 2,850 residents across the entire state). This population stability was also fairly even across the state’s planning regions, with five of the nine planning regions showing a gain or loss of 0.1% or less. The highest relative population gains in this period were seen in the Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region (0.5% gain), the Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region (0.3% gain), and the Naugatuck Valley Planning Region (0.3% gain).
How Did Migration Patterns Vary Between Planning Regions?
One of the components contributing to population changes is net migration, or the number of people moving to a place minus the number of people moving out of that place. Net migration is further broken down into domestic and international migration.
For an analysis of migration at the state level, see our recent blog post on Connecticut migration flows. Below, we discuss migration patterns by planning region based on the migration estimates developed by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program as components for estimating overall population change.
During the first year of the pandemic, from July 2020 to 2021, all nine planning regions experienced positive net migration. Most of the planning regions experienced greater domestic than international migration during this period, presumably due in large part to pandemic-related restrictions on international migration and changes in domestic migration preferences.
Between July 2021 and 2022, this migration pattern reversed. Overall, Connecticut experienced a domestic out-migration of 13,547 residents that was compensated for by an international in-migration of 16,269 residents, yielding an estimated net in-migration of 2,749 residents.
The four planning regions with the largest urban centers - Capitol, Greater Bridgeport, South Central, and Western Connecticut - showed large rates of domestic out-migration and much higher levels of international in-migration than was seen in the prior year. In the Capitol Planning Region, high rates of international in-migration more than compensated for the domestic out-migration resulting in a net in-migration of about 900 residents, while in the South Central Connecticut Planning Region international in-migration and domestic out-migration roughly balanced each other out. In the Western Connecticut and Greater Bridgeport Planning Regions, high rates of domestic out-migration outweighed international in-migration to yield a net out-migration. Connecticut’s five other planning regions experienced modest net in-migration, balancing out the net out-migration from the Western Connecticut and Greater Bridgeport Planning Regions.
How Did the Planning Regions Differ in their Natural Population Change?
The Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program also estimates natural change, defined as the number of births minus the number of deaths, as a component for estimating the overall population change.
For an analysis of natural change at the state level, see our recent blog post on Connecticut migration flows.
Natural population change in both 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 varied widely between planning regions. The Greater Bridgeport and Western Connecticut Planning Regions showed natural population increases of about 700 to 1,300 individuals due to births outnumbering deaths in both years. In contrast, all other planning regions showed natural population decreases in 2020-2021, and six planning regions continued to show natural population decreases in 2021-2022. All planning regions showed greater natural population increases or smaller decreases in 2021-2022 compared to the first year of the pandemic.
For More Information
See the Census Bureau’s news release for a nation-wide analysis of the newly-released county population estimates.
To learn more about the Census and resources provided by CTData, head to our Census Data portal. Explore other data sets and analysis at data by topic and data projects. You can stay up-to-date on the latest data and tools by subscribing to our newsletter and following CTData on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.