Census Data Shows Disproportionate Mortality Rates For Different Groups During Covid-19

Census Bureau data products continue to give insight into changes in mortality trends over the past few years and through the Covid-19 pandemic. Vintage 2022 Population Estimates, which are based on data from the National Center for Health Statistics, take into account final 2021 and provisional 2022 mortality data and allow data users to look at mortality by sex and by race and ethnicity.

To learn more about monthly changes in mortality by age and race/ethnicity during the six months of the Covid-19 pandemic, check out our previous blog post.

Overall, the number of deaths in Connecticut increased by 16% between 2019 and 2020, compared to a national increase of 19%. The following year brought a 10% decrease in the number of deaths in Connecticut and this remained similar in 2022. Statewide, there were 9% more deaths in 2022 than in 2019.

Connecticut Mortality Trends by Demographics

With Vintage 2022 Population Estimates, we can look at morality data by demographic characteristics from before, during, and towards the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, from 2018 to 2022.

Deaths by Sex

Between 2010 and 2020, females in Connecticut had higher numbers of deaths than males, although the difference in number of deaths between males and females was decreasing leading into 2020. According to the American Community Survey 1-year estimates between 2010 and 2020, females made up about 51% of Connecticut’s population and, according to CDC estimates, accounted for 51-52% of deaths each year. In 2020, deaths were nearly equal between males and females, and in 2021 and 2022, males accounted for 52% and 51%, respectively, of deaths.

Between 2018 and 2019, the number of deaths among females increased by less than 0.5% (44 deaths). Between 2019 and 2020, female deaths increased by 16% (3,002). This was followed by a 14% decrease (2,325) between 2020 and 2021 and a 3% (512) increase between 2021 and 2022. In 2022, there was 8% (1,233) more female deaths than there was in 2018.

Male deaths increased by 3% (471 deaths) between 2018 and 2019 and by 16% between 2019 and 2020. The number of male deaths has been decreasing since 2021, although at a slower rate than female deaths. Male deaths decreased by 7% (1,195) between 2020 and 2021 and decreased by 2% (262) between 2021 and 2022. In 2022, male deaths were 14% (2,120) higher than in 2018.

Deaths by Race and Ethnicity

Deaths were increasing across all racial and ethnic groups between 2018 and 2019. Between 2019 and 2020, the pace of increase grew during the Covid-19 pandemic. Deaths among the Hispanic, Asian, and Black populations increased by more than 20% (30%, 28%, and 27% respectively). Deaths among the white population increased by 13%.

In 2021, the second year of the pandemic, deaths in Connecticut dropped by 10%. However, deaths increased among the American Indian or Alaska Native population (13%) and the population of two or more races (11%). Deaths decreased by 11% among the white population, 9% among the Black population, 8% among the Hispanic population, and 3% among the Asian population.

In 2022, deaths in Connecticut increased by 1% compared to 2021. Deaths among the Hispanic and white populations increased by 3% and 1% respectively. Among the Asian and Black populations, deaths decreased by 5% and 2%.

Between 2021 and 2022, deaths among the American Indian or Alaska Native population decreased (-43%) and increased among the population of two or more races (28%). Both of these groups have smaller numbers of deaths than other groups in Connecticut - a smaller numeric change in deaths results in comparatively larger percent changes.

The differences in the increases in deaths for each racial/ethnic category mean that the proportions of deaths each year among each group have changed. In 2018, the white population accounted for 85% of Connecticut deaths. This share decreased to 81% in 2022. The Hispanic population made up 6% of deaths in 2018 and 8% of deaths in 2022. The Black population accounted for 8% of Connecticut deaths in 2018 and 9% in 2022. The share of Connecticut deaths in 2022 remained within 0.5% of 2018 shares for the Asian population, the American Indian or Alaska Native population, and the population of two or more races.

Vintage 2022 estimates use provisional death data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Vintage 2023 population estimates will take into account final 2022 mortality data from NCHS. The first release of Vintage 2023 estimates is scheduled to be released in December 2023. Estimates are released for different geographies on a rolling basis throughout the year.

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