Connecticut Sees Shocking Increase in Deaths During Covid-19

As communities and businesses across Connecticut continue their ongoing battle with the Covid-19 pandemic, an initial look at excess deaths underscores the destruction this public health crisis has left in its wake.

Excess deaths are deaths that occurred above and beyond what would be expected in an average year. In other words, the number of excess deaths is a measure of the temporary increase in the mortality rate of a population. To understand the relationship between Covid-19 and excess deaths, we compared the actual death toll in 2020 to the average of death tolls from the past 5 years, using data from the CT Department of Public Health (CT DPH). To learn more, continue reading or download a pdf version of our findings.

Key Findings

From the emergence of Covid-19 in March 2020 to the end of June 2020, data from CT DPH shows that Connecticut experienced a 40% spike in deaths compared to previous years. Excess deaths were highest during the peak Covid-19 months of April and May, reporting +100% and +57% increases, respectively. Certain communities felt the severity of the pandemic more than others. In April 2020, compared to previous years, individuals 60 years of age and older experienced twice the number of deaths. Black individuals experienced over triple the number of deaths. Furthermore, Black individuals 80 years of age and older experienced over four times the number of deaths.

While there is no certainty that excess deaths are directly or indirectly due to Covid-19, the data and analysis of excess deaths are consistent with trends in Covid-19 death data provided by CT DPH. Download a PDF version of our findings here.

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96% of Excess Deaths from March Through June Occurred in Individuals Aged 50 or Older.

Ongoing Covid-19 research has highlighted groups and communities who have been disproportionately affected by the virus. Between March and June 2020, excess deaths in Connecticut totaled 4,186. Of those deaths, 4,037 (96%) were individuals 50 years of age or older. Covid-19 generally presents a lower risk to younger individuals and a higher risk to older individuals.

Death rates in youth and young adults were largely unaffected by Covid-19, while death rates among older adults (60+ years of age) jumped by about 100% or higher in the peak month of April. The population of individuals in the middle of these age ranges (aged 30-59 years) has largely been overlooked in conversations, despite seeing excess deaths spanning from 40% to 71%.

Black and Hispanic Individuals Experienced the Highest Increase in Deaths.

Overall, deaths in Connecticut rose by 100% in April 2020 and 57% in May 2020. However, Black and Hispanic deaths significantly exceeded the overall increases in both months. Black individuals experienced a surge of 210% in deaths in April and 133% in May. Hispanic individuals experienced comparable spikes—175% in April and 118% in May.

These excess deaths indicate a racial disparity in our communities. Black individuals make up 10% of Connecticut’s population, but 17% of excess deaths from March to June 2020. Understanding Covid-19’s effect on different races and ethnicities provides an opportunity to allocate Covid-19 resources and efforts to disproportionately impacted communities such as our Black and Hispanic communities. These differences are the result of centuries of structural racism, which has manifested in inadequate and unequal treatment of people of color, ultimately causing health disparities in our communities.

Fairfield, Hartford, and New Haven Counties Struggled with Sharp Increases in Mortality.

In April, Fairfield County experienced the highest increase in mortality in Connecticut’s counties at 160%. This number is well above the overall state average of 100% for the same month. Hartford County and New Haven County also experienced high mortality increases in April 2020, consistent with the state average of 100%. Regions such as the counties of Windham and New London experienced low-to-moderate increases in mortality during April and May 2020.

Intersection of Age and Race/Ethnicity

Do all races/ethnicities experience higher excess mortality as age increases?

All races and ethnicities generally experience an increase in excess deaths with age. Smaller populations such as the American Indian community experience two deaths per month on average, resulting in difficulty attributing variability in death counts to excess mortality. The relationship between age and excess mortality is observed consistently across races and ethnicities, regardless of magnitude.

Black and Hispanic individuals are experiencing higher overall excess mortality. Is this consistent across all age groups? Are there specific age groups where this finding is magnified?

From age 30 onward, Black and Hispanic individuals are experiencing excess mortality at a substantially steeper rate than other races and ethnicities. As age increases, the inequality intensifies—Black individuals aged 80+ experienced a 315% increase (+175) in deaths in April, compared to the Connecticut average of 107% for the same age group. Hispanic individuals saw a similarly large jump of 245% (+94). As excess mortality gradually decreased in May, Black and Hispanic individuals continued to experience excess mortality rates two to three times the Connecticut average for older age groups.

What Does This All Mean?

Epidemiologists, researchers, and scientists are uncertain of when the Covid-19 pandemic will end. Most do not have a prediction, some estimate by 2021, and others are looking beyond next year. What we do know is that the United States has experienced one of the highest levels of excess mortality since the start of the pandemic.

With looming uncertainty, we can use historical data to inform decisions and policies moving forward. Data provides insight into the effect of Covid-19 on our communities, and we can use this information to direct additional resources, especially to those who have endured historical disinvestment and been disproportionately impacted by the virus. As another wave of Covid-19 cases approaches and communities struggle to recover from the virus economically, data will have a crucial role in making decisions to save lives in our communities.

Data Limitations

With any data and statistical analysis, it is important to understand whether the sample size is sufficiently large enough for the desired analysis. When looking at overall excess deaths in Connecticut, we can be fairly certain that the 100% increase in mortality in April was partially attributed to something (likely Covid-19) because of the large sample size—deaths rose from about 2,650 to almost 5,300 in 2020.

On the other hand, there was a much smaller sample size for certain racial groups such as American Indian deaths. Although analyses indicated a 50% increase from previous years in May, this represented moving from an average of two deaths in May to three deaths in May 2020. Whether the additional death among Indigenous populations is attributed to Covid-19 cannot be concluded with this small sample size and, therefore, high margin of error. Rather than omitting populations with limited data in analysis, it is important to invest additional resources to investigate how Covid-19 is impacting smaller communities.

Additionally, unlike many other states, Connecticut uses a paper-based death registry system. While Vital Records is processing Covid-associated deaths before non-Covid deaths, there is still a delay in reporting. According to CT DPH Epidemiologist Karyn Backus, “The Department of Public Health is rolling out an electronic death registry system (EDRS) that is expected to be fully implemented by summer of 2021. The EDRS is currently in pilot and will be expanded over the coming months to include additional users.”

Questions? Comments?

If you are interested to learn more about Covid-19 data, check out our Covid-19 Dashboard and other resources on our website, as well as part one and two of our COVIDeracy blog posts. Please reach out to our Data Analyst, Jason Cheung, at jc@ctdata.org with any Connecticut Covid-19 inquiries.

For More Information

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