Population Decline: Hartford Youth, Past 3 Decades
Last week, CTData was approached by an organization that was looking to explain the decline in the youth population between 2010 and 2020, particularly the declining numbers of white youth. We decided to share our findings publicly in this post.
Share of Population Identifying as White Non-Hispanic is Shrinking Nationwide
The fact that the share of US population self-identifying as white non-Hispanic is falling is a well-reported phenomenon. For example, see “Census data: US is diversifying, white population shrinking” by the Associated Press. Among the reasons cited are:
“Falling birthrates among white women compared with Hispanic and Asian women”, and
“Some demographers cautioned that the white population was not shrinking as much as shifting to multiracial identities.”
The 2020 Census may have accelerated the second reason by the improvements to the race and Hispanic origin question design and data processing. For example, in 2020 there were two changes to the Hispanic origin questions that revised the choices in order to represent the largest Hispanic population groups and the instructions were revised.
Hartford’s Youth Numbers Have Bee Declining for A While
Let’s take a look at the past three censuses (2000, 2010, and 2020) to see what was happening with the under-18 population.
| Year | Total Under-18 | Asian NH* Under-18 | Black NH Under-18 | Hispanic Under-18 | White NH Under-18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 36,568 | 361 (1.0%) | 13,785 (37.7%) | 18,850 (51.5%) | 2,172 (5.9%) |
| 2010 | 32,217 | 637 (2.0%) | 11,760 (36.5%) | 17,361 (53.9%) | 1,595 (5.0%) |
| 2020 | 28,003 | 773 (2.8%) | 9,817 (35.1%) | 14,838 (53.0%) | 1,222 (4.4%) |
*Non-Hispanic
Source: 2000, 2010, and 2020 Decennial Census
Hartford’s youth have been declining in numbers since (at least) the beginning of the millennium. White youth has been shrinking in size, too, albeit at a slightly faster rate. In 2000, 5.9% of under 18s in Hartford were identified as white non-Hispanic, compared to 4.4% in 2010.
The same trends can be observed in Hartford school enrollment data. In the past 6 academic years, total enrollment dropped from just under 21,500 students to just over 17,700.
Source: EdSight. Click image to expand.
The number of students identified as White has been declining, along with Black and Hispanic students. Only enrollment counts for Asian students have been somewhat increasing, which is consistent with the census data (see table above).
Source: EdSight. Click image to expand.
Census-Tract Data Is Affected by Differential Privacy
The Census Bureau introduced Differential Privacy (DP), a technique designed to grant greater protection of individual responses, for the 2020 census. This resulted in artificial noise at smaller geographic levels (such as census blocks), which “cancel” when geographies are grouped into larger areas, such as census block groups or census tracts.
While census tracts generally have reliable and accurate counts, few white non-Hispanic young people in Hartford (1,222 under-18s, according to the 2020 Census) result in an average of 30 people per tract. Such low numbers are more susceptible to being affected by the DP, as well as under- or overcounting.
2020 Was The Year Like No Other
And finally, it is important to remember that 2020 Census was happening at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. People who had second homes may have moved out of big cities by April 1, and reported their new homes in the census form. Some may have been self-isolating and missed the opportunity to respond altogether.
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